Wednesday 25 March 2009

Gilt-edged swords

The failure of the latest UK Gilt auction today could be down to several factors. Aside from the odd maturity date (40 years), it didn't help that the Bank of England governor came out with some negative comments on stimulus packages the day before.

Having said that, the inevitable front-runner is investment sentiment. With tax receipts about to fall through the floor, the Treasury's forecasts are not optimistic - they are fantasy. In that situation, you can understand the caution of buyers.

One swallow doesn't make spring, but the UK government needs to take heed that selling Gilts is not a free ride. But to put things into context, the recent fall in Gilts pretty much erases the recent "pop" in the market following the quantitative easing announcements. The real danger is that policymakers are deploying quantitative easing with little understanding of its negative effects.

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