Wednesday, 24 December 2008

Season's greetings

It has been a challenging year. Whilst some have been brought down by their own greed, many families face difficult times through no fault of their own. If your circumstances allow it, please take some time to offer whatever support you can to someone you know who may be facing such challenges, or to a good cause - an investment that I can guarantee will be valued and appreciated.

This blog is normally focused on financial markets and the pursuit of wealth creation. Yet at this special time of year, let us put that to one side briefly and cherish the blessings of friendship and goodwill - the greatest wealth of all.

I'd like to wish all my readers a very Happy Christmas. I hope that 2009 brings you good health, happiness and success in your endeavours.

Have a peaceful and enjoyable holiday,

"Capital Novation"

Monday, 22 December 2008

Quantitative Wheezing

Several pundits are at pains to point out that there is a key difference between the US quantitative easing programme and the prior art of this technique (i.e. Japan in the 1990s). The argument is that the Fed is buying a range of non-government assets (MBS, commercial paper, loans...) rather than just Treasuries. Unlike Japan, this should spur a broader economic boost rather than simply rebooting bank lending. In other words, it's different this time.

"Different this time?" I've heard that one before. The problem here is that all these measures are of limited firepower at this stage. Every macroeconomic indicator of note is pointing due South, and it would be naive to assume that the consumer will suddenly revert to type as unemployment ratchets up. The economy is simply out of breath, and force feeding liquidity to the patient is not going to help.

However, all this liquidity will have a long term impact. Unless the Fed can snatch it back the second the economy starts to turn, we will face a horrible rise in inflation. Given their past record (thank you Mr Greenspan) I have my doubts that the Fed has the nerve to slam the brakes once prices start to move.

Trichet gets a lot of stick for his hawkish position on rates. Well we'll see - 2009 will either break the ECB's credibility, or seal its reputation as a new reserve currency manager.

Sunday, 21 December 2008

Core Concept 2 - Total wealth picture

In this week's core concept, we'll look at the foundation for your wealth management plan. This is based on a getting a complete picture of your current wealth position. All your investment decisions should be based on this.

As I mentioned last time, you need to make a full list of all your assets. This includes all the usual financial pieces (savings, brokerage account, 401ks), any property you own, and other major assets (e.g. a car). And don't forget to add your own human capital (your skills, experience, current job).

Then scribble down your major commitments. For most people this will revolve on loans (mortgage, college tuition, credit cards). Add in any major expenses you are planning over the next ten years (such things as college fees, for example).

There are two principles when planning out future expenses. First, if you can pay down as much debt as you can. Second, always pocket a small amount each month for an emergency fund to cover the unexpected (e.g. additional medical costs). Life can throw lots of curve balls, so having some cash to tide things over is no bad thing.

Putting these two things together will help you understand how much "liquid" assets you will need at various points in time. It should also help you rationalise what is "necessary" versus "nice to have" spending. Be ruthless - there are always more things we'd like. Stick to the essentials - if things turn out better than planned, that's a bonus.

The end result of these lists is the raw material to start steering your investment decisions to meet these future needs. This will involve planning what investment strategy makes sense for each major "purchase" you need to fund. We'll walk through this in more detail in the next core concept.

Saturday, 20 December 2008

A picture perfect company

Or so the banner says on Polaroid's press release web page. There's a tragic irony to the story, as a company founded on a great innovation lost its way and failed to invent itself a future. In this instance, there seems to be a nasty fraud coming out of the Petters venture capital group.

Of course, it pales into comparison with the Madoff debacle. Yet a common theme is emerging of relatively large organisations pursuing fraudulent activities without any of the supposed governance/audit controls being triggered.

A lesson from these recent failures is that the whole regulatory approach needs to change. Policymakers thought that Sarbanes-Oxley had solved the issues that were found in the Enron failure. Unfortunately all those reforms achieved was a huge fee windfall for consultants and auditors - fraud and governance failures seem to have continued more or less unchecked.

Friday, 19 December 2008

A central banker's Christmas Carol

It was the night before Christmas, and a dark shadowy figure sulked away from the festive crowd to his home (recently assessed in negative equity by the lender). The man was Ebernanke Screwed, the Fed Chairman.

After supping over a tepid bowl of gruel, he fuelled his measly log fire with copies of his recent testimony to Congress. “Best use for it!” Screwed chuckled.

All of a sudden, he heard a slithering sound and a rasping tone. “Eeeebernanke….” said the voice. Screwed turned, and to his horror was faced with a ghastly apparition. A gaunt man was standing beside him, wrapped in a heavy chain of rare unsigned copies of the Age of Turbulence. Those horrible, fashion-tragic glasses…

“Greenspan!” shrieked Screwed.

“Helloooo Ebernanke. I have come to intercede on your behalf, for you are currently on the path of doom and eternal despair…”

“You mean my policymaking?”

“No, I was thinking of your interior decorating. But now that you mention it, perhaps we need to discuss your recent statements.”

“Oh, I remember this part. Three spirits will come to show me the path to redemption.”

“Err, actually 2 and a half. We need to watch our expenses, so the third is part-time. Now I must go….”

“Back to the underworld?”

“Worse. An interview on Fox news. Farewell Ebernankeee….”

With that, Greenspan faded out of sight after turning a whiter shade of greenback. Screwed gulped a glass of his favourite wine, a vintage Two Buck Chuck. As he put the glass down, the first spirit appeared before him. To Screwed’s surprise, he was standing before a shadowy ghost of Bill Clinton.

“Are you Mr. Ebernanke Screwed?” it asked.

“Former President Clinton? You are the ghost of Christmas past?”

You betcha!”

“But you’re not dead yet!”

“Hey, since when have rules stopped me? Hillary can attest to that! Anyway, I’m here to show you the past, so here we go…”

They found themselves in a cheerful conference room at the US Treasury. A smiling Greenspan was at the head of the table. “Things are going brilliantly” he mused.

“But what about the risk of an asset price bubble?” quipped someone at the back of the room.

“Lighten up Shiller, sometimes you’re just tragically intense. All those numbers of yours make no sense. Quit worrying!”

The troublesome Shiller was bundled out of the meeting room to be given a cold shower at the Fed. In a quiet corner, a young Screwed was taking careful notes and nodding to all Greenspan’s platitudes.

The scene then faded away.

“What Greenspan said made so much sense. All those intelligent sounding words…” sighed Screwed.

“And look where you are now” laughed Clinton. “By the way, have you seen my cigar anywhere…?”

“Get away from me Clinton!” jumped Screwed.

“OK, OK, you’re not my type anyway. Hey, gotta go! You’ll be seeing my colleague soon…” With that, Clinton faded away.

Screwed shook his head. No sooner had the ring of Clinton’s voice gone from his ears than a trio of businessmen popped out of the garbage can.

He stood up and confidently introduced himself “I am Screwed.”

“Yeah, that sums it up!” quipped the first.

“Mind you, we should now!” laughed the second.

“Takes one to know one!” roared the third.

“Hold on…I know you. Nardelli, Wagoner and Mulally. The Detroit Three”

“Ho ho ho! Yes, or better known as the three Stooges!” they chorused.

“You can’t teach me anything - you’re the heads of bankrupt companies.”

“And you’re the head of a bankrupt central bank. Hahaha! Now that’s an achievement!”

“You’re idiots. You can’t even count. There’s only supposed to be one of you, not three. I read books, you know.”

“And you can’t read financial statements! We’ve been written down so much that it takes three of us to make one spirit!” they laughed.

All of a sudden Screwed found himself in a grubby tavern. A group of bedraggled central bankers were huddled around a table. To his amazement, he recognised his business partners: Mr. King of England, the snooty Baron de Trichet of France, the sneering Hank Paulson and the Financial Shogun Shirkawa.

“We’re doomed…what the hell is Ebernanke doing? Parachuting bailouts…” groaned King.

“It is tres bizarre. He’s crashing straight into le zero interest rate world” mused Trichet.

“For once we’re ahead of everyone else!” laughed Shirakawa.

“I tell you boys, that Ebernanke wouldn’t know finance if he tripped on it. Fiddling with the Fed Balance sheet whilst corporate America burns” snarled Paulson.

“Still, no one will miss him when he’s gone” whispered King.

“He’ll be the first Fed Chairman to have worse book sales after his time in office!” mused Trichet.

“Back to academia for Ebernanke then” added Shirakawa.

“Yeah, I hear Detroit Business School is hiring” laughed Paulson.

The tavern then faded into the mist. Screwed felt crushed by what he had witnessed.

“Woe is me! I thought they were my friends! Yet they laugh at me with contempt. I even gave them signed copies of my last book” he wailed.

“So that’s how they send themselves to sleep at night!” quipped Nardelli.

“OK Screwed, we hope you’re starting to get the picture” added Mulally.

“Your next visitor will be here shortly. We’ve got private jets to catch!” said Wagoner.

“But you promised Congress you’d drive from now on” wailed Screwed.

“Nah! We’re just using the hybrid SUVs to ship our books of excuses to Washington. After all, we’d have to hire a cargo plane otherwise. Time for us bail out…Hahaha!”

With that, the jovial executives disappeared in a cloud of airplane kerosene. Screwed was still reeling from the shock when another ghastly apparition materialised. The faint sound of news jingles seemed to surf around him.

“Nouriel Roubini!” gasped Screwed.

“Yes, it is me, the great Roubini! After years of predicting the credit crisis, and seeing stocks fly through the roof, I have finally been proved right! I can see the future…”

“Houdini has nothing on you. Wait a minute…you’ve been wrong before then?”

“Details, details. Yes, but at I least I’ve been proved right now! Unlike that turnip Anatole Kaletsky, and the ghastly Irwin Stelzer! Haha! They won’t be getting invites to CNBC anytime soon! Unlike me, the Great Roubini…”

“Can we get to the point?”

“Ah yes. Well, let me show you the future…”

Screwed suddenly found himself in a huge factory. Sullen individuals of all ages and creeds surrounded him, toiling away on a tractor assembly plant.

“What is this place? Communist Russia?” asked Screwed

“No, Washington DC. With your reckless policy actions, the United States became a basket case country, and the state had to takeover all commercial enterprises.”

“NOOO! I must stop this” screamed Ebernanke.

“The solution is simple, Ebernanke. “

“And it is…?”

“Sorry, I only work part-time. Got to go – I have another party in my uber-trendy New York apartment to go to. Gloomy macroeconomics is the new rock and roll, you know. Ciao”

With those parting words, Roubini vanished and the news jingles faded. Screwed looked around his empty house in total panic.

“We’re doomed! We’re as dead as corduroy!” he yelped. He rushed around the house, and crashed into a long object rapped in a tarpaulin. Curious, he took the cover off, and beheld…a printing press!

The next day, the town was awash with currency. Screwed was a changed man, smiling to all as he tossed bundles of fresh banknotes into mailboxes. All seemed to be well again, and Screwed felt he had learnt the true meaning of central banking Christmas: bailouts and banknotes for all.

Perched on a rooftop, the Detroit three were watching the newly pressed currency floating in the breeze.

“Haha! There’s a spelling mistake on your banknotes Ebernanke!” they laughed.

Unfortunately their voices were lost to Screwed, who was wrapped in the praise of his many, many bailout recipients.

“God bless the printing presses, every one and all!” sung Screwed.

Wednesday, 17 December 2008

Madoff and frenchmen

It is striking that up until a few quarters ago, the french banks were often criticised for not adopting a more "anglo-saxon" model, particularly in investment and risk management. With hindsight, this has probably positioned french banks quite well for the post-Lehman era (Kerviel aside).

With respect to Madoff, my previous point about due diligence has received an appreciated (although unconnected) boost from Societe Generale. Apparently a routine due diligence by Societe General picked up something awry in Madoff's track record nearly 5 years ago. Bernie went straight on their internal blacklist. It just goes to show that the boring number crunching pays off.

Sunday, 14 December 2008

Madoff's mess

Even by the standards we've become used to during these interesting times, the fraud uncovered at Madoff this weekend is rather staggering. Having built up his pyramid scheme on the capital of wealthy US investors (in particular from Florida), Madoff snared them all. Reports hitting the wire today are reporting several institutional investors being caught in this pickle - BNP Parisbas, Santander and Pioneer to name a few.

I'm not sure whether this has anything to do with the Irish government's sudden decision to prop up its listed banks with a massive recapitalisation effort. People have been asking me this weekend how "sophisticated" investors could have fallen for Madoff's scam.

The reality is that investors tend to get seduced by the "investment" story (track record, strategy etc). It creates this weird mindset where people get so excited by the idea that they get too lazy to do the (boring) due diligence that is vital to weeding out the crooks. An unglamourous task, but essential to preserving wealth.

The worst offenders are actually so-called "sophisticated" private investors who setup their own family offices. Think of the toy train version of asset management. You have people with far more money than sense, who often have never had to work in truly commercial settings (if they did, they only got the job through their father/mother's good offices). They hear about "smart investors" putting money with a fund manager, who seems to generate great returns. They pile in with little or no time spent actually kicking the tires.

One example springs to mind. I bumped into the son of a wealthy patriarch on Friday, who was whining about being caught in a similar situation. I asked him how he'd decided to invest. "A very good friend who invests his own money recommended it", came the response. I then asked what analysis he'd done of the manager's middle and back office operations. A blank stare. Come on, you did ask for an operations manual? "No". Not even an audit of some recent trades? "No".

I have trouble sympathising with such amateurs. Yes, Madoff appears to be a fraudster according to the news, and if proven he should be held accountable for that. Yet supposedly "sophisticated" investors wrote their cheques without the most basic due diligence. This may sound unfeeling, but let this be an abject lesson to these people - don't have delusions of grandeur. It's the quickest way to erode your wealth.